🔗 Share this article

Just two months prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.