A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
